When Joel Embiid sits, it’s the same old story — but Sixers ‘can’t give up’

NEW YORK — Entering the Philadelphia 76ers’ first-round series against the New York Knicks, the health of Joel Embiid seemed like by far the biggest variable. If the reigning MVP could play like he did toward the end of the regular season, if he could even approach the heights he reached before he had surgery on the meniscus in his left knee in February, then the seventh-seeded Sixers would have a great chance to advance, the thinking went. And if he struggled physically, like he did in the Play-In against the Miami Heat, then they would not.

It was not that simple in Saturday’s series opener at Madison Square Garden. Less than three minutes in, Embiid had all nine of Philadelphia’s points, including a corkscrew and-1 layup. Despite an injury scare — the result of Embiid channeling Tracy McGrady with an off-the-glass alley-oop to himself in the second quarter, perhaps the most spectacular play he’s ever made — he finished with 29 points on 8-for-22 shooting (11-for-12 from the line), eight rebounds, six assists and two steals in 37 minutes. The Sixers lost, though, because they were outscored by 21 points in the 11 minutes that he was not on the court.

Philadelphia played without Embiid for two months in the regular season, but it can be “a little bit” challenging to toggle between styles with and without him, forward Nicolas Batum said at the team hotel in Midtown Manhattan a day after the 111-104 loss.

“We think about it during the game now,” Batum said. “When he’s on the court, it’s great. When he’s not … we can’t give up. We still gotta find a way to be effective and can’t [go from being] up 12 and then [be] down 10 because he’s not on the court.”

Sixers coach Nick Nurse didn’t have much of an update on Embiid’s knee on Sunday. “I asked him how he was feeling,” Nurse said. “He said, ‘Pretty good.'” Even if he is able to log 40-ish minutes in Game 2 on Monday, it needs to stay steady — or at least not completely fall apart — when he goes to the bench.

“We gotta figure out ways to play when he’s off the floor,” Kyle Lowry said. “Play with some pace, play with a little bit more decisiveness. You know, he’s such a dominant force for us, and we get comfortable when he’s there. But when he’s not there, we gotta find ways to get other guys involved, get the ball moving, play with a little bit more energy and communicate a lot better.”

This is a frustratingly familiar storyline. Four years ago, without one go-to backup for Embiid, the Sixers tried Amir Johnson, Boban Marjanovic and Greg Monroe (who started Game 3 of the first round in Brooklyn) in the playoffs, and they tried centerless lineups (with Mike Scott or Ben Simmons as the nominal 5) too. Memorably, Embiid finished their second-round series against the eventual-champion Toronto Raptors plus-90 in seven games, and they were outscored by 109 points in 99 minutes with him on the bench. Philadelphia does not have that kind of hole on the second unit anymore, and there’s no controversy that resembles the DeAndre Jordan vs. Paul Reed discourse of 2022, but the problem persists.

In the regular season, Philadelphia was outscored by 0.6 points per 100 possessions with a slightly below-average offense and a slightly above-average defense without Embiid on the court, according to Cleaning The Glass. In the 43 games that he missed, the Sixers went 16-27.

“I really hoped we would play better in those times when Joel was out,” Philadelphia president of basketball operations Daryl Morey said in an interview on The Rights To Ricky Sanchez last week. “We’re really not built for that, but you do hope you have a few more players step up.”

The Sixers may have become a more complete team at full strength after trading James Harden, but they also became less equipped to win their minutes without Embiid. “James for sure carried us in a lot of those games last year and is used to being the guy,” Morey said in the podcast appearance. “And look, yeah, we just weren’t generating clean looks for guys when Joel was out.”

In Game 1 against New York, Tyrese Maxey scored a team-high 33 points on 14-for-26 shooting and Lowry had 18 points on 5-for-9 shooting (including a 12-points-in-three-minutes flurry to open the second half), but nobody else besides Embiid thrived offensively for Philadelphia. Its bench was outscored 42-7, and starting forwards Tobias Harris and Kelly Oubre Jr. scored a combined 17 points on 6-for-14 shooting (2-for-6 from deep).

“[Harris] needs to get involved,” Nurse said. “Nico needs to get involved. Kelly needs to get involved. Buddy [Hield] needs to get involved. There’s a lot more people we need to get involved.”

One thing to watch on Monday: Philadelphia’s rotation. In the first game, Embiid was on the court for all of Lowry and Oubre’s minutes, with the exception of the two minutes and 37 seconds that he spent in the locker room after the off-the-glass dunk. Perhaps instead of tethering them to Embiid, they could be subbed out early, then be used to stabilize the second unit when he rests.

“We’ve played a ton without him, we know what our style of play is and what we need to do without him,” Nurse said. “I think that we gotta make sure, as a coaching staff — or I gotta make sure — that, when he is out, we got the right people in. And I think it applies the other way, too. I think there’s some other guys that kind of fit with him, as well. We gotta make sure those guys are in when he is in.”

On that front, it is notable that Hield played only 11 minutes in Game 1, splitting his playing time between lineups that did and didn’t feature Embiid. On The Rights To Ricky Sanchez, Morey said that, when the Sixers acquired him at the trade deadline, they hoped he’d more productive than he was in their non-Embiid minutes.

“We had done a lot of study on Buddy Hield, and I think he probably needs an edge a little more than I might have thought going in,” Morey explained. “He’s not going to like do as much as you’d want when Joel is out, let’s just be frank. We always thought his fit was there with Joel. I thought his fit without Joel was going to be a little bit better, but I think, look, the nature of his game, he’s always played off of others to get his clean looks.”

Nurse said that Hield will “be a factor in this series.” He said that Oubre was not “nearly the athlete that he needed to be last night” but understands what he has to do going forward. He said that Maxey needs to “play more physical and get involved in rebounding and get involved in the physical nature of the game.” He said that Reed “was out of position a lot” defensively and “went for a lot of blocked shots that he didn’t need to,” which led to a few of the Knicks’ 23 offensive rebounds. There is plenty of room for both individual and collective improvement.

Despite being dominated on the glass all game and having a net rating of minus-97 (not a typo) with Embiid off the court, Philadelphia still had a chance to win Game 1 down the stretch. This is a testament to Embiid, a testament to their first-shot defense and a testament to their upside if they manage to get their second unit’s act together. When Embiid takes a seat on Tuesday, the Sixers will have an opportunity to show that they’ve learned from this loss and are sick of the same old story.

“We have to be a little bit more sharp,” Lowry said. “We have to be a little bit more in tune with each other, also.”

2024 NBA playoff picks, Game 2 best bets from proven model

The 4-seed Cleveland Cavaliers hope to move closer to just the fifth playoff series win in franchise history without LeBron James when they host the fifth-seeded Orlando Magic in Game 2 of their 2024 Eastern Conference first-round matchup on Monday. Cleveland has won 21 of its 29 postseason series with James on the team but is just 4-14 without him, with its last such victory coming in 1993. The Cavs gained the upper hand in this 2024 NBA playoffs series by defeating Orlando 97-83 on Saturday. The Magic haven’t won a postseason series since 2010 and have lost five straight playoff games, all by double digits.

Tip-off at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland is set for 7 p.m. ET. Cleveland is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Cavaliers vs. Magic odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 203.5. Before making any Magic vs. Cavaliers picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 90-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Cavs vs. Magic and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Magic vs. Cavs:

Cavaliers vs. Magic spread: Cleveland -5.5
Cavaliers vs. Magic over/under: 203.5 points
Cavaliers vs. Magic money line: Cleveland -222, Orlando +182
CLE: The Cavaliers are 15-0 when holding opponents under 100 points in 2023-24
ORL: The Magic are 1-12 all-time in Game 2s on the road and have lost nine straight
Cavaliers vs. Magic picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Cavaliers can cover
Cleveland has been almost automatic when hosting Game 2 of a playoff series, going 16-1 overall and winning each of the last nine contests. The Cavaliers will be looking for another strong performance from Donovan Mitchell, who led all players with 30 points in Saturday’s opener. It was the 21st career 30-point effort in the playoffs by the 27-year-old guard and his second with Cleveland, tying him with five others for third in the franchise list.

Center Jarrett Allen and forward Evan Mobley each recorded a double-double in Game 1, with the former registering 16 points and 18 rebounds while the latter had 16 and 11. The 26-year-old Allen, who was 6-for-10 from the field, joined Drew Gooden and current teammate Tristan Thompson as the only players in team history with at least 15 points, 15 boards and a 60% field-goal percentage in a postseason game. The rebound total was Allen’s highest since he pulled down 20 on March 20 against Miami. See which team to pick here.

Why the Magic can cover
Orlando shot just 32.6% from the field in the series opener but had five players reach double figures in points. Forward Paolo Banchero, who led the Magic during the regular season with an average of 22.6 points, scored a team-high 24 in his playoff debut. The first overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the 21-year-old also pulled down seven rebounds and dished out five assists.

Franz Wagner scored 18 points and also had seven boards while blocking three shots. The 22-year-old forward has produced at least 14 points in each of his five meetings with the Cavaliers in 2023-24. Guard Jalen Suggs finished with 13 points while forward Jonathan Isaac and center Moe Wagner both had 10 points and five rebounds, with the latter doing so off the bench. See which team to pick here.

How to make Cavaliers vs. Magic picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 210 points. The model also says one side hits in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick and analysis at SportsLine.

So who Cavaliers vs. Magic, and which side hits in almost 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Magic vs. Cavaliers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,600 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.

2024 NBA playoff picks, Game 2 best bets by proven model

The Philadelphia 76ers will look to even their best-of-seven Eastern Conference first-round series at 1-1 when they meet the New York Knicks in Game 2 on Monday. The Knicks grabbed a 111-104 win in the 2024 NBA playoff series opener on Saturday. The seventh-seeded 76ers (47-35) had a nine-game winning streak stopped in Game 1. The second-seeded Knicks (50-32), who earned their highest seed since being the second seed in 2012-13, have won six in a row and seven of eight. Joel Embiid (knee) and Tyrese Maxey (illness) are listed as questionable for Philadelphia.

The game will tip off at 7:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Philadelphia averaged 114.6 points per game during the regular season, while New York averaged 112.8. The Knicks are 5.5-point favorites in the latest 76ers vs. Knicks odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 204.5. Before making any Knicks vs. 76ers picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer simulation model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the second round of the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 90-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Knicks and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Knicks vs. Sixers:

76ers vs. Knicks spread: New York -5.5
76ers vs. Knicks over/under: 204.5 points
76ers vs. Knicks money line: New York -184, Philadelphia +166
NYK: The Knicks are 45-37-1 against the spread this season.
PHI: The 76ers are 48-36 against the spread this season.
76ers vs. Knicks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Knicks can cover
Point guard Miles McBride is coming off a 21-point, four-assist and three-rebound effort in the Game 1 victory. That is 13 points more than his regular-season average. He has played well of late, and over his past nine games, is averaging 11.7 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.2 steals in 32.6 minutes. He scored 24 points in a 109-99 loss at Miami on April 2, and has reached double-digit scoring in 10 of his last 15 games.

Small forward OG Anunoby has given the Knicks a boost since being acquired from Toronto before the trade deadline. In 23 games with New York, all starts, he is averaging 14.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 1.5 rebounds in 34.9 minutes. He scored 11 points and grabbed four boards in Game 1. In four regular-season games against Philadelphia, Anunoby averaged 13.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 33.5 minutes. See which team to pick here.

Why the 76ers can cover
Maxey (questionable) poured in 33 points, dished out four assists, blocked two shots and grabbed two rebounds in Game 1. Maxey has found his range of late, and has scored 26 or more points in each of the past four games, including a 52-point effort in a 133-126 double-overtime win at San Antonio on April 7. In three games against the Knicks this year, he averaged 26.3 points, six assists and four rebounds. He is also connecting on 44.8% of his field goals and 90.5% of his foul shots against New York in 2023-24.

Embiid (questionable), who has battled injuries all season, scored 29 points, grabbed eight boards and had six assists and two steals in Game 1. He finished the regular season with three consecutive double-doubles, including a 37-point and 11 rebound effort in a 120-102 win over Detroit. During the regular season, he faced the Knicks once and poured in 30 points and grabbed 10 rebounds. In 39 regular-season games, the eighth-year veteran averaged 34.7 points, 11 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 steals. See which team to pick here.

How to make 76ers vs. Knicks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 214 points. The model also says one side hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins 76ers vs. Knicks, and which side hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Knicks vs. 76ers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,800 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.